Why Is America No Help?
Turkey helps Ukraine, not America. Simply, America has neither will nor capacity. It can no longer deal or interfere with overseas problems as it used to. On top, Ukraine is an insulated country deep inside Europe. In this case, America cannot help Ukraine, if it does not work with Turkey. It is a simple but a solid fact.
Times have moved and America can no longer afford to have misguided foreign policy objectives. Recently, I posted “What is Wrong Over The Horizon.” I emphasized that the perfunctory deployment of troops by America “not only makes Russia more aggressive but also alienates Turkey.” That was mistake number two for the current administration after the catastrophic Afghanistan pull out.
Russia now awaits, the third strike by America, to do the unthinkable in Ukraine. The 45th president avoided such pitfalls by emphasizing “America First.” Simultaneously, he also announced the pull back of troops from Afghanistan and Syria. He stayed out of the Clinton mess in Libya as well as the forty day war in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Unlike France, the other co-chair of the Minsk Group, America did not come up with bravado to aggravate the problem in 2020. The 46th president, instead, made moves and statements to risk the independence, integrity, and sovereignty of Ukraine. Hence, it is not for nothing, Lloyd Austin, the US Secretary of Defense, insistently talked about NATO instead of helping Ukraine. He simply tried to play it down to save face in the eleventh hour.
Why Turkey Helps Ukraine, Not America
At this stage, America has no options but to work, primarily and singly, with Turkey. In 2021, America repeatedly displayed missteps from Afghanistan to the Balkans and lost credibility. Turkey, on the other hand, showed it has will power and capacity. Diplomatic, military, and economic strides of Turkey now ensure friends and foe. China, Russia, Germany, Ukraine, and Armenia are included in the Turkish band wagon.
I authored “GameChanger,” published in 2020. I argued that the balance of power (BoP) between Germany, Russia, and Turkey will determine the future of Europe. Furthermore, I stressed that America must work with Turkey to have any influence in this BoP. Finally, I concluded, if America does not work with Turkey, it can kiss goodbye to the sole superpower status within a decade.
Unfortunately, the tally for America is rapidly getting worse since the 2020 presidential election. First of all, the current US Administration did not work with Turkey in 2021 at all. Plus, the colossal miscalculation in Pakistan, coupled with the fiascos in Afghanistan and the Balkans, simply gave Carte Blanche to Russia. Lately, America also noticed Germany siding with Russia and France following suit.
Even landlocked Armenia, after century long enmity, began cooperating with Turkey in 2022. Armenia simply gave up on America. In 2020, I argued that Armenia’s destiny is with Turks. I questioned the US Senators emphatically “kicking Turkey ouf of F-35: What were they thinking?” Finally, the day of reckoning is here that is why Turkey today can help Ukraine and America has to watch from sidelines.
Turkey Helps Ukraine, Not America
First, Turkey helps Ukraine because it can. To that effect, it is widely reported that Turkey is the only power with means that can really make a difference in this conflict between Russia and Ukraine. To that end, on 17 January, Reuters reported that Turkey announced mediation efforts. President Erdogan’s visit to Kiev in early February and Russian and Ukrainian presidents possibly meeting in Turkey are widely circulated.
Various factors support the importance and effectiveness of the Turkish initiatives. On one hand, Russia and Turkey are major trading partners. The interdependence between two top twenty economies are vitally important to both presidents. On the other hand, Turkey also has economic and military interdependence with Ukraine. In other words, Turkey is indispensable to Ukraine and Russia.
Turkish Bayraktar TB2s Do The Job
Additionally, Turkey is the dominant military power in the region even though Russia is a nuclear power and Turkey is not. For example, Turkey has a proven military platform to stop Russia’s military might dead in its tracks. Turkey has already provided Ukraine with more than two dozen Turkish Bayraktar TB2s to do the job. By the way,Turkey did not rule out the possibility of providing the same to Russia but that is another story for another time.
At this stage, let it be sufficient to say that it is a widely acknowledged fact that Turkey revolutionized the art of warfare on the dawn of the New World Order. Turkish military superiority in Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ethiopia proved it. Wars between proxies showed that Russia, China, and France supplied weaponry against Turkish counterparts were no match. In Ukraine, perhaps for the first time, these superior Turkish military platforms can be tested against the forces of the major powers of the world, starting with Russia.
Additional Turkish Factor
The domineering Turkish electronic warfare and drone technology aside there is another Turkish card. Germany led continental European economy receives thirty percent of the energy needs via Turkish pipelines from Russia. Turkey, in other words, has a significant say in the Western European security, second only to America.
Yet, in light of the ingrained problems & inept leaders making America helpless, Turkey emerges as an important actor. Turkish regime unlike its American counterpart is raising the right points and delivering what makes the difference in the playing field.
Ingrained Problems & Inept Leaders in America
Turkey Helps Ukraine
The bold and misleading statements from America about Ukraine are mainly cosmetic and for domestic consumption. The most apparent is the $2.7 billion US military aid to Ukraine since 2014. Evidently, it is nothing more than peanuts in the face of Russia, the Bear next door.
As for Democrats making a “federal” case about Javelin missile delivery to Ukraine in 2019, it was yet another public opinion ploy. For the sake of impeaching Donald Trump, they then created a euphoria. Javelins, simply, do not stop massive numbers of Russian tanks “blitzkrieging,” but Turkish TB2s do.
Handful of these drones, in actual war scenarios, already destroyed hundreds of them at a time within hours. Javelins do no not have such a record. Like the rest of the world, Ukrainians are also aware of these facts. As late as 28 January 2022, Gen. Oleksandr Pavliuk of Ukraine said that he sent a request to the US for additional defensive weaponry. Weeks later, he said, he was still waiting for a response.
Simultaneously, the US embassy in Kiev was bragging with a statement, of all things, about the latest delivery of Javelins. Does anyone in America realize what kind of insult to the injury before the global audience this is? Does anyone understand that America’s lackey will have to face consequences.
Ukraine Crisis Hurts America
But Helps Russia, Turkey, and Germany
Conflicting, soon to become confrontational, statements between American and Ukrainian officials prove one thing. America has neither will nor capacity to help Ukraine. What is worse, Russia, Turkey, and Germany also know this very well.
Such erosion of credibility in the first year is sure to tie the hands of the 46th Administration. How can America with no visible threat-power in the next three years project any national interest? Short of that, the rising powers of the East naturally will fill the vacuum.
Turkey is one of them with will power and capacity in the region. It will mediate between antagonists and then leverage them. Surely, when all is said and done, war in Ukraine hopefully will be avoidable. The winners, unfortunately, will be everyone except America.
When Diplomacy Wins in Ukraine
Ironically America Does Not
It is the “mother” of all ironies.
If diplomacy wins in Ukraine, America will surely come out the loser in the international arena. One, it will lose influence over Ukraine. Two, the need for the US leadership and NATO will weaken. Three, the balance of power among Turkey, Germany, and Russia will grow on solid grounds. Free from American yoke, they will lead independently.
Turkey & Germany
Turkey will exact more of what it deserves or seeks from America because America will have to rely more on Turkey. The Turkish military will fill the vacuum that NATO leaves behind. Turkey will further solidify its domain in the Caucasus, Middle East, Balkans, eastern Mediterranean Sea, Horn of Africa, and North Africa.
Germany will also be another big winner. Energy supply from Russia will continue uninterrupted. The interdependence with Turkey and Russia will allow Germany to distance from American domination. Germany will eventually become totally independent and sovereign, like Ukraine.
Ukraine & NATO
Ukraine, if it were to avoid war and destruction, will prosper with Turkey and Germany. It will become a significant partner of the European community. It will start playing the “next Turkish card” for more security and effectiveness. America’s influence in the region will dissipate altogether.
Irrespective of NATO membership of Ukraine, Russia will tremendously benefit from the Turkish-German orbit. Their new focus will be the establishment of the New World Order to their liking. Meanwhile, the million dollar question will remain unanswered: Were Russia, Germany, and France in this together to break up the NATO alliance?
Mother of All Ironies
In short, if diplomacy were to win in Ukraine, all international players will win, except America. The superpower, will be the only looser. Nevertheless, “America First” may still come out of this ordeal vindicated.
Let us now forget, the Biden Administration has been the beneficiary of Ukraine mess all along. Come 2022 elections, what if the same mess turns the tables around! Would not that be the mother of all ironies?
Turkey Helps Ukraine, Not America
That also brings us to the million dollar question. Why should America help Ukraine if avoiding war will make America the only looser?
Hence the answer is obvious: Turkey helps Ukraine, not America because America wins only when Ukraine ends up with war and destruction in the hands of Russia.
When Globalists are at the helm, that is!