Turkish Power: GameGhanger

Turkey Over America

Democrats made much fuss about delivery of some Javelin defensive missiles when Donald Trump was president. As if they were the one and only military platform that was going to stop Russia from invading Ukraine. Unfortunately, America had to listen to that nonsense because Globalists were busy throwing the kitchen sink at the 45th president. Otherwise, no one with some intelligence ever believed Javelins had much role to play if Russia decided to make a military move. Recently, Forbes summarized the fate of Ukraine with an article. There is one single and credible leverage for Ukraine: Turkey over America, regarding aggression from Russia.

America is seven thousand miles away from Ukraine, but that is not the problem. Ukraine is deep inside continental Europe. There are layers of countries to go through to bring the heavy equipment. It is simply not feasible, especially to prevent a “blitzkrieg”. The other alternative is even more cumbersome if not impossible. Black Sea is practically a closed sea. Ukraine has a coastline. NATO warships are not permitted to navigate and dock in the region for more than two weeks at a time. Plus, they will be in a perilous state, in an isolated part of the world with only handful of warships.

Turkey on the other hand has the longest coastline to the Black Sea. But that is the least significant leverage it has over Russia. Under the guise of “New Turkey”, long time staunch ally of America, is a domineering economic and military power of the region. On top of that, Russia and Turkey are integral trading partners. Ever growing economic interdependence between two Eastern powers makes Turkey not America the right ‘interlocutor valable’ in this conflict. Like the Forbes article mentioned, “New Turkey” has one more thing that no one else has.

Turkey Over America

In the face of ever growing and imminent Russian threat against Ukraine, there is no good American option. Instead there is one simple Turkish alternative that must be used very sensitively. Yet that does not mean that America has any say in it because of the leadership in the Western Alliance. In fact, from the looks of it, Turkey will be the sole decision maker in resolving this grave problem by taking over America.

Turkey over America already has numerous precedents. In Somalia, there is not much America worth talking about, but there is a major Turkish military presence. In the Persian/Arabian Gulf, Turkish dominance is also taking over America with each passing day. There is no country in the region where Turkish leverage is not becoming clearer for everyone to see.

Let’s not even visit other parts of the world in the region. Turkey is in full throttle moving into Central Asia, filling the vacuum America left behind. America once had a say in the Caucasus too. Anyone remember how the Minsk Group failed and caused the recent plight of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh?

Much like what transpired in North Africa and is taking place in the rest of the dark continent. New Turkey is building bridges with all of them in the north from Egypt to Libya to Tunisia to Algeria and Morocco. China is the dominant player in the rest of Africa. New Turkey is right behind it, second to none.

Then there is the dismal picture in the Middle East. Since America lost Iran in 1979, nothing went right in the region for the West. The steady pull back ensued, leaving behind devastation. As a result, the region began turning back to New Turkey, realizing their plight ever since they “back stabbed” the Ottomans.

In Ukraine: Turkey Over America

In Ukraine: Turkey over America will soon become a fait accompli, if it is not already. What began as an economic interaction between Ukraine and Turkey is now in the process of turning into military interdependence. Ukraine and Turkey complement one another in a number of areas.

Drones vs. Engines

Turkey is dominant in drones. Together with China, Israel and America, it is one of top four countries in drone technology. Ukraine has decided to buy  the “Baykar” brand from Turkey. Like Azerbaijan and Qatar already did. Poland is awaiting delivery too. Reportedly, Check Republic, Hungary, Albania, Bulgaria, England and Morocco are also in line.

Ukraine already received the first batch of six. Next order is said to be four to six times bigger. Having seen what these drones achieved against weapons from Russia, China, and France, they are no brainer. Turkish TB2s proved themselves in Syria, Libya, and in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

Ukraine, in turn, is in the process of providing Turkey with a variety of engines for military platforms. Turkey is able to research, develop and mass produce engines of its own. In the interim, it benefits from what Ukraine offers, readily available. Next, Turkey and Ukraine may generate next generation drones and engines together.

Drones and engines are not the only area of cooperation. Turkey is building indigenously developed military platforms like corvettes for Ukraine. There are also talks to build transport planes on a large scale. Ukraine benefits from the heavy industry experience from the Soviet era. Turkey brings on board new technology and markets.

Turkey-Russia Dynamic

In Ukraine: Turkey over Russia is also a fact. Crimea is a motherland for Crimean Tatars, as well as it is for Ukrainians and Russians. Tatars and Turks are brethren. They are part of the same race and Muslims. Turkey does not recognize annexation of Crimea by Russia and insists that it is an integral part of Ukraine.

All the while, Turkey views Russia as one of the most favored economic and military partners. Where as, America, Germany, and Britain, for example, have to compete for market share. So much so that, Russia is on a trajectory of becoming the biggest trading partner of Turkey, surpassing everyone.

Russia transports one third of the energy requirement of continental Europe via Turkey. Russia also provides major military platforms like a nuclear power plant and S-400 defensive batteries to Turkey. Plus, nearly ten million Russians visit Turkey yearly as tourists. Two countries have long targeted one hundred billion dollar trade volume.

Increasing interdependence between two eastern powerhouses also reflects how conflict resolution works between them. They accommodate one another. Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh debacles proved that they can live with one another. Cooperation in Black Sea is most important. There, the goal is to keep the rest of the world out of local natural resources and problems.

Hence, they have plenty of reasons to work together, including resolving problems in Ukraine. Consequently, trend will have to continue for Turkey to take the lead in this crisis and for America to support the effort. Any other foreign policy objectives would be ill advised. It will surely come back and hunt the sole superpower.