For The Muslim Ummah

Erbil Writes Saudi-Arabia & Egypt: False Prophets

Is it fair to call Saudi-Arabia and Egypt: False Prophets? No, but they are false prophets because neither Saudi-Arabia nor Egypt never delivered to the expectations of Arabs. On top, they also never shied away from optics, depicting them as the leader of the Arab world.

In the meantime, a century after it is dissolved, Muslim ummah still cherishes the memories of the Ottoman Empire. In light of Baghdad and Damascus burning endlessly, all throughout the 20th century, it is clear that no one from the Arab world was able to emerge as a true leader.

Western powers elevated Saudi-Arabia and Egypt in stature to fill the vacuum and become the pride of Arabs. Instead, they remained solely as the pillars of the Western interest in the region. In that respect, both of them fulfilled their responsibility. One did it by pumping oil and managing the fields. The other did by stately posturing in front of the Arab flock.

Neither was able to bring some modernity and prosperity to the Arabs in general. On the contrary, they did the impossible. They delivered the conditions of the 7th century in the 21st century.

Only a false prophet can do it!

Saudi-Arabia & Egypt: False Prophets

Saudi-Arabia has never become an economic engine for the region. Nothing like Germany that made the European Union or New Turkey that is in the making for the New Middle East. There was no ripple effect of riches from Saudi-Arabia to the neighboring countries. As if that was not enough, oil wealth also became a curse for the region. Wars touched everyone.

Egypt, on the other hand, never had enough military power to project real presence beyond its borders. It has always remained a potential menacing threat in neighboring African countries like Sudan or Libya. Even then, geographic and climatic conditions always had a debilitating effect on the population. The Nile, being the lifeline, kept the country immobilized as if tying the hands all the time.

Saudi-Arabia remained as an eternal hostage 

Saudi-Arabia has remained a hostage for having the biggest oil reserves in the world. It needed protection only the US could provide. Finally, domestically, hands were further tied. The society always remained divided with a rigid line between the Wahhabis and the Saudis.

Oil: Fata Morgana

Oil became a lifelong master of Saudi-Arabia. Plus, Western masters also made Saudi-Arabia believe, as if, the oil will last for eternity. Until recently, no one in the Kingdom was allowed to contradict this notion. Despite well-documented dwindling reserves, the country continued business as usual, and as directed.

The US: Absolute Control

The US is still in charge in Saudi-Arabia and will remain for the foreseeable future. THE last US president, Donald Trump (45) pursued the national interest of the US for four years. He put Saudi-Arabia on notice when it made friendly forays towards the Russian Federation or the People’s Republic of China. Keeping the distance with Muslim powers, especially with New Turkey, was also very important.

What about Wahhabis! 

The Wahhabis are an integral part of Saudi-Arabia and they live under the veil. The Saudis, on the other hand, are the face of the Arab state. This unsettling internal balance between the two is a domestic matter but it must be settled sooner than later. Until then, it will remain in the vulnerable state it was founded in 1932 and recognized by the US in 1937: A hostage to oil, to the US and to the Wahhabis.

Egypt: North Africa is not the Middle East

The strength and weaknesses of Egypt are all in one. It has always been accepted as an African powerhouse but benign.

Gamal Abdel Nasser’s regime is a good case in point when Egypt joined forces with Syria. The United Arab Republic was not effective. It served no purpose and achieved nothing, except destruction for the Arabs.

In the past, Egypt was most powerful under the Ottoman suzerainty. It controlled the whole region extending to Medina and Mecca. That was the only time Egypt had a say in the region and leverage, recognized by everyone friend and foe.

Muslim Ummah is not with False Prophets

Soon, it will be the time to reckon with the Muslims for Saudi-Arabia, because centennial celebrations are coming fast.

2024 is the centennial of when Ataturk, the founder of the modern Republic of Turkey, abolished the Caliphate. It caused great disillusionment among Muslim ummah all over the world. When in 1926, Egypt tried to revive it and failed miserably, the damage was enormous to its reputation. Yearning for Turks increased and then endured.

Since the turn of the Millennia, the notion that the Turks are coming back again is becoming widespread. This time they also look even more formidable than ever before. They are confronting Western and Eastern powers every step of the way, and repeatedly. So far, they defended the regime in Qatar. Then they made forays in Iraq, Syria and Libya. They further reinforced the general belief that they are for real. They looked like the savior of the old every time.

The last time Arabs were in disarray in the 7th century, Turkish horsemen came to town and established order. The Ottomans took over the control of the Levant, North Africa and the whole of the Arabian peninsula from another Turkic empire called Mamluk. They ended the three centuries-long rule of their brethren for them to control it for the next four centuries. Their Muslim empire lasted more than six centuries. Damascus and Baghdad always prospered under the Mamluks and the Ottomans.

Nothing false or prophetic about Turks. They came and did it by brute force and with complete faith, and every time. They left their mark. One wonders after a century-long false prophet if there would be another Turkic state that will deliver.

True Prophecy: Saudi-Arabia & Egypt

There is only a decade-long preparation left for the centennials of 2032 and 2037. Unless Saudi-Arabia resolves domestic matters, it will never be in a position to negotiate its rightful place in the new world order.

For Egypt, the circumstances are different. Their leaders never stopped coming with coup d’etats. Not until the voice of the majority will be heard and represented, Egypt will not be free either.

Only then, Saudi-Arabia & Egypt will be able to shed the past and start anew. Only then, they can also become GameChanger as New Turkey has already become in the region.


Saudi-Arabia & Egypt: False Prophets

A book by an insider to both presidents