Mainly Against France and America
In 2022, Turkey winning with diplomacy against the West is a sure bet. The momentum is already in place. Having completed the muscle work by 2020, the rising Eastern power transitioned itself into diplomacy in 2021.
Turkey’s journey began in 2009. Within a decade, Turkey proved to be a domineering regional power. Leading major powers, including America, during the process, noticed the increased might of the Turkish military.
Armenia, ironically, is now in a position to benefit the most from this dilemma. It became the beneficiary of the first Turkish diplomatic overture in the region. Israel, UAE, Egypt, S. Arabia may be next in line to realign with Turkey. Russia and Ukraine have long jumped on board. The West is the last to realize what has been transpiring.
Of course there are exceptions like Spain, Poland, and Hungary for example. They long knew the value or reasons of cooperating with Turkey. Regimes in France and America, on the other hand, have been on a wrong path. As a result, they have been paying the price.
Recently, ever growing Chinese power aside, Turkey also demonstrated capacity and will power in the region. Soon it is likely to extend its reach overseas and deep inside Africa and Central Asia. Come 2022, the West will feel the pinch even more.
Meanwhile, Turkey continues with diplomacy, unwavering, in the region and beyond.
Turkey Winning With Diplomacy in Armenia
Turkey ended 2021 with an international agreement. It was a first and one of a kind in a century, between long time adversaries. It came after a total military defeat of a Christian community against Muslims in a forty day deadly military confrontation.
In 2020, Azerbaijan joined forces with Turkey and won the war in Nagorno-Karabakh against Armenia. The defeat also became an embarrassment to the OSCE partners. Russia, France, and America could not help Armenia during the ordeal.
America, France and Russia had come together in 1992 to back Armenian claims in Nagorno-Karabakh. In fact, when Armenia took the enclave from the helpless Azerbaijan, reportedly, civilians were massacred. Frankly, no one much cared about Muslim victims in the international arena.
The OSCE, on paper, is called: the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe. In practice, it has become an international mechanism, to ensure with zeal, incorporation of this Azerbaijani enclave into Armenia proper.
After thirty years, Azerbaijan with brute military force reclaimed the sovereignty in Nagorno-Karabakh. After that, five countries in the region met. Turkey and Azerbaijan decided to bury hatchets and extend a friendly hand to Armenia. Russia and Iran joined them to make it a lasting peace in the region.
As a result, Armenia will now prosper. Fully scheduled flights from Yerevan to Istanbul are already underway. Next come trade, tourism, charitable gestures. Past thirty years, Armenia only had Russia and Iran to rely on. Azeri-Turkish blockade, on the other hand, miserably crippled the land locked country.
Turkey Winning Militarily First
Increased acrimony between Turkey and Western Alliance members also began in 2009. Reportedly, that is also when, Turkey first decided to get out of the obligations to buy F-35 aircrafts from America. From then on, it set course towards full-fledged independence from the Western yoke.
Within a decade, Turkey took care of business, with military muscle, in northern Iraq and Syria. After that, it showed a solid stand, supporting regimes in Qatar and Libya. Turkey also projected power in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.
The fate of the French frigate, dead in the Adriatic Sea, was the biggest highlight. France complained to NATO that the Turkish frigate disabled its warship with electronic warfare. NATO did not buy the formal inquiry after brief investigation. Nevertheless, what Turkey pulled one over France is yet to be understood. Perhpas not until Turkey formally divulges it.
France did not force its luck second time though. Shortly after the frigate mess, the French carrier Charles DeGaulle, en route to Greece, found an abrupt excuse. It turn back to a port in Italy instead. Meanwhile, Turkey continued to consolidate total control of “Mavi Vatan.” Practically half of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea was soon a Turkish domain. No one dared to challenge it to avoid embarrassment.
Rightly so, next strategic move by Turkey was phenomenal. Basically, ensuing Libya – Turkey maritime agreement sealed the deal. Consequently, eastern portion of the Mediterranean Sea became a no-no zone for the Western powers. The Nagorno-Karabakh debacle and victory by the Azeri-Turkish coalition followed these developments.
After that, Turkish military technology started to show up in the hands of Ukrainians against Russians. Lately, Ethiopia too successfully confronted the Western attempts to destabilize the country. Turkish drones made the difference.
Turkey Winning Against Major Powers
To clarify further, Turkey did not win militarily against smaller and weaker countries in the region. It won against Russia, France, and America on the ground. Russia tested Turkey militarily in Syria and Libya and lost the contests in the hands of proxies to save face. France could not even test the Turkish will. It was pitiful. America, smartly, simply avoided any entanglement.
European allies ridiculed France. It was not able to hide pathetic failures in Libya, Eastern Mediterranean, Nagorno-Karabakh, and the rest of Africa. As a result, French retreat in the dark continent continues to date unabated not only against China but also against Turkey. Mali is one of numerous but clear picture of disgrace. There, Turkish meddling is a suspect.
America was smart with the 45th President in charge. It wisely avoided direct confrontation when Turkey was at work militarily in regional conflicts. Yet, it was not, for not trying, or not feeling the ill effects of the growing Turkish military power. Long neglect of the armed forces and wrong procurement policies were detrimental.
A case in point involves F-35s. Reportedly, Turks were able to display a weakness or deficiency in the aircraft, when it was in the vicinity of Cyprus. America remained mum about the incident ever since. Yet, those in the know stated that it was probably the electromagnetic field via Turkish warship that did it.
On the other hand, apparently, it was not the first time that the major powers noticed electronic warfare superiority of Turkey. In 2016, Russia submitted a formal letter to the United Nations. It specifically complained about Turkish electronic warfare.
It is unbelievable but Russia, a nuclear power state, felt vulnerable to a certain extent. Russia first experienced the devastating effects of the Turkish Koral in northern Syria. That was about four years earlier. Since then, more deadly Koral 2 also surfaced.
Now, reportedly, four other, newly developed electromagnetic platforms are also available for Turkish forces. Ilgar and Vural are the latest two yet to be tested in actual scenarios. On the other hand, who knows! No one expects Turkey to reveal the existence of a new military platform before testing it in an actual war scenario against a foe or a “friend.”
Turkey Winning With Electronic Warfare
Currently, Turkey has varying electronic warfare platforms in mass production. Some are also available for export to the “approved” countries. They mainly provide defensive measures. Yet their presence does not give solace to antagonists.
These electronic warfare platforms are sophisticated, massive and mobile units. Even though they present defensive posture, they are also devised to be used as offensive weapons.
America, Russia, and France will surely declassify their unpleasant experiences with them, one day soon. The world will learn how effective Turkish electronic warfare platforms were when they were first used.
Until then, it is a safe bet Turkey winning with diplomacy will become a modus operandi across the planet. In any case, no major power, at this stage, at least in 2022, will want to be suicidal.
Aggravating Turkey to leave diplomacy aside and resort to electronic warfare does not benefit anyone.