It was in the making since 2018
Does anyone remember the two days war in 2018 between Israel and the Palestinians? Israel asked for a cease-fire and Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman resigned on 14 November. No one thought then that Israel’s mess could be an existential threat.
Reportedly, the Palestinians had a grand plan in mind all along. Four early elections later, in two years, it looks like the plan is on track. No one can tell what the plan exactly was, but political instability sounds just right.
The mess Israel is in now in May 2021, is the end of what began in November 2018. From now on, not even an early election will be a savior. In the worst case scenario, violence may be rampant, not only on the streets.
Political debacles may become more frequent. Even worse calamity, Israel may be further isolated and insulated state and left alone with its ever growing chaotic problems.
On top of that, it is unfortunate that one has yet to discover how to fix a domestic democratic problem with a “foreign aid.”
All the while, there may still be additional potential and bigger problems lurking that no one can foresee. Like many did not, the ensuing political instability past two years after the initial salvo.
Israel’s Mess: Existential Threat
Clear and Present Danger
This specific mess in Israel has a beginning and an ending date. That also means there is something that triggered them. Hence, there must be some entity behind it.
The size and scope of both messy affairs indicate that this is a plan with collateral damage in mind. It could be as novel as the “forthy year plan,” some suggested. Remember Moses!
At this time, no one can pinpoint exactly what is at work or how comprehensive and sophisticated it is. One thing is for sure though. Existential threat has already become clear and present danger.
The fact that there will not be a unanimous agreement, about what must be done next, will also make this mess long lasting. Neither the people or the leaders of the country are ready for it.
Non-Arab citizens of Israel never noticed what was in play since 2018. They continued to support the same leaders since 2009. These leaders never saw the ploy that they were sucked into.
A Brazen First Step
It is high time now that the non-Arab citizens of Israel clearly understand what was at play in the 2018 war. They must question why the war lasted only two days and came to an end as soon as Israel sought a cease-fire.
What was the hurry with the Palestinians that made them give up so fast? No one paid attention because of complacency. Starting an attack, then taking a punch and immediately after that: giving up. What a strategy!
Reportedly, It was a well thought out first step to activate a political strife. Avigdor Lieberman resigned and everyone was quick to blame him. No one really judged if he could be right beside going overboard.
His radicalism may be the fundamental issue at hand but his resignation did not resolve the problem. It only aggravated and gave a way to the next and bigger problem, in similar character and purpose.
Ensuing two early elections were the ripple effect then. From there on, the citizens of Israel kept looking who to blame next in each early election.
Only to realize that they were looking in the wrong direction, but they would be too late when they did. After the third early election, all someone had to do now was to put another log in the fire to get it going.
It was no longer difficult to reignite the “bonfire” because political strife in Israel had already come to the boiling point. The last coalition government was also the icing on the cake.
Now, people were clearly able to see how their voices were not heard, worse, not respected. Moreover, those that did not deserve were now being rewarded. The Corona pandemic was used as the main excuse.
2009 Regime in Power
Manipulated All Along and Never Realized It
Thinking that the citizens of Israel will have a short memory is an insult to the silent majority. As if crying for a wolf that never came was not enough, now people also knew it was the wolf that was doing the crying all along.
Come fourth early election, most everyone had already doubts that they may be fooled again. Yet, in this hoopla, there was one more ploy in play and that was not so apparent to the clear eye.
The Arab citizens of Israel had already begun to leave the herd and some were heading back to a completely different direction. It was puzzling. Were they part of this grand plan all along, having played their role in the past four early elections.
Otherwise, the left, with the Arab minority support, should have formed a government since 2009. Especially, keeping a hard line radical right coalition in power, for four early elections, was suspect now.
Perhaps, to keep the 2009 regime in power since the 2018 war, with every new early election, was it. That was how the political strife was going to continue and erode the public confidence over the elected officials.
Israel’s Mess: Existential Threat
Last Salvo of the First Chapter
Some 2000 rockets rained over Israel within a week-long barrage in May 2021. That was the last salvo of the first chapter that began with the two days war in 2018. From the looks of it, it already carried Israel to the next threshold of the challenge.
Now, the political journey will be a lot more complicated, and perhaps also vicious, compared to the first chapter. Avigdor Lieberman, like leaders, that were victimized early on as culprits, now will come forward. They will seek redemption. They will have all the reason to try to prove that they were right.
All the while what was ignored, or not noticed, will continue to be in play as part of the “Grand Plan.” Some of the “Arab citizens of Israel” will come out of their veil. Some others will resist. Yet others will give in to pressure and admit guilt for no good reason.
That will be the real tragedy in the “Second Chapter” of this saga. What to do with the sizable minority in the country? While they are already an integral part of the society with a commanding twenty percent, they will feel existentially threatened all the same.
They will have nowhere to go while Israel will not let them go either if that means allowing them to leave only in spirit.
Israel’s Mess: Existential Threat
Domestic or Foreign
Israel’s Mess, that is an existential threat, has two dimensions that are similar in nature. One, the threat now comes from within and no one is able to identify it. The other is as insidious.
There is a threat from outside but while some insist it is local, meaning within the region, in reality it is not. As a result, the country will remain divided, for not being able to identify the foreign threat either.
In the aftermath of the May 2021 clash, some will overreact and that will be a big mistake for Israel. Some others will never realize how entrenched the problem is and what it may lead overtime.
Israel, in the cusp of transformation, hopefully, may come out of this quandary with not much violence. Yet, some already compared the horror they witnessed, during the week long missile barrage, to the Kristallnacht.
So the second pertinent question is how much of this mess is internationalized? And how so? Considering it is insidious, what to do about it, without being not sure what it is, is yet another problem to resolve.
There are tens of millions of Arabs to point fingers at. Then, there are Persians. What about Turks? They are all convenient suspects. What if the real threat is not originating from either one of them?
After all, evil was in play all throughout the 20th century and neither the Arabs, nor the Persians or the Turks had anything to do with it. In fact, Turks were most helpful especially since Israel was founded.
No one denies the atrocities of WWI and WWII. Neither was comprehensible to the human mind, yet they did take place. No one can erase them from memory. Europeans were solely responsible for everything.
The same Europeans as part of the West also had something to do with the massacres and mayhems in Algeria, Rwanda, Iraq and the Balkans. There is nothing in comparison from a Muslim neighbor of Israel.
Archives Are For Everyone To See
Rome Was Not Built In One Day
To understand Israel’s mess and the existential threat it is facing today, two things must be in order. One, historical archives must be visited. Two, Rome was not built in one day.
Historical archives will show what could be behind the 2018 Grand Plan and the current mess.
Only then, one will be able to arrive at a solution that will be clear to the eye, in order to resolve it the right way.
It will take some time. That is fine. This mess was not created in one day!