RETURNING FAVOR
Yemen: Trump’s Parting Gift to Biden is yet another way of returning the favor to the globalists.
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In December 2016, the outgoing US administration sent 200 US soldiers to Syria to fight against ISIS. They were deployed in a “no man’s land” on the 11th hour. There was no urgency for that. It was only a political ploy. It was a way for Obama to tie Trump’s hands in Syria.
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On Oct. 23, 1983, 220 Marines, 18 U.S. Navy sailors, and 3 U.S. Army soldiers lost their lives in the Marine Barracks at the Beirut Airport. There was extensive analysis after the tragedy, yet something I knew was not in these explanations.
The Ottomans, that controlled the same region for four centuries, never deployed soldiers in that particular “no man’s land.” And when they did it, briefly, the number of troops was not this few!
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Trump understood the Obama “game” well. He immediately increased the number of US troops in Syria, at least by tenfold. This naturally aggravated President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. That was exactly what Obama wanted to do in the first place and it worked.
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Simply put, what Trump tried to do with Yemen, on the 11th hour, in January 2021, was no different. Obama had done the same to him in Syria four years earlier. Trump was simply returning the favor to Biden.
Blacklisting Houthis in Yemen: Trump’s Parting-Gift to Biden
Blacklisting Iran-supported-Houthis in Yemen was sure to tie the hands of President-elect Joe Biden. The incoming US president was going to be left busy dealing with a quagmire. He was not going to be able to mount a fresh push to end Yemen’s devastating six-year-old war.
Coupled with the push in the US Congress not to impose an arms embargo to Saudi Arabia and UAE, courtesy of the Israeli lobby, the war in Yemen was going to be fueled uninterrupted.
As a result, Iran would have been most aggravated against the US. Biden would have been bogged down with this international crisis. His hands would be tied. It would be no different than how Trump’s hands were tied in Syria only four years ago.
Yemen Tragedy
Meanwhile, there is a human tragedy in Yemen. So far, more than 100 thousand Yemenis died but there is not much cry in the international community. According to the newly released UN statement, 2 million Yemeni children are facing death by malnourishment.
The remaining 24 million are equally deprived. Yet, the tally of the tragedy does not bode well for the US and others that are already part of this conflict either. All the while, new players are sure to come in and benefit from the spoils of war.
The US cannot win
The mess the US finds itself in Yemen is a disaster. No matter which way to look at it, it is a lose-lose for the US. In the war, the US supported S. Arabia and the UAE coalition fighting against Iran-supported-Houthis.
What exactly was the strategy the US strategy early on? No matter what it was, if there was one, it was a sure bet that the US could not win. The allies were not the right to mix. The adversary was also wrong.
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Iran, reportedly, arrived in Yemen in early 2010. Obama’s regime was in power. By 2016, the US strategy was to confront Iran to no end. The plan was to do it with S. Arabia, UAE and Israel. Neither one of these countries had either the demographics or viable military projection to deal with Yemen. While the regimes in S. Arabia and UAE had vital domestic issues, Israel was facing an existential threat from all corners all the time.
Plus, there was rising China and New Turkey, nearby, in the prowl. Getting rid of Iran in the short term was the task. Yet, what to do with soon to arrive bigger Eastern powers with the likes of S. Arabia, UAE and Israel was the big question. Obama regime never figured what to do with the rising New Turkey when it mattered in the early 2010s.
GameChanger New Turkey
New Turkey started to make inroads in the Horn of Africa in 2011. Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey made a historic visit to Somalia. After that, Sudan and Ethiopia came into play. The Horn of Africa is across the Red Sea from Yemen. Soon, there is no reason why the Turkish navy will not make port calls there.
New Turkey will arrive in Yemen with its newly and indigenously built ocean-going navy. TCG Anadolu is an amphibious assault ship of the Turkish Navy that can be configured as a light aircraft carrier. It is only one of a dozen major warships New Turkey built in the past decade.
Yet, New Turkey will also be coming to Yemen from another direction. It already has a major military base in Qatar. Recently, it also made similar moves in Oman which are next door to Yemen. Pakistan is not much far away either. The ocean-going Turkish navy will surely make regular port calls in Yemen in between.
China and Russia
China will be in the company of New Turkey there. It is building the Gwadar Naval Port in Pakistan where the Turkish Navy will frequent. New Turkey is a very important ally to China in the region. The most viable Belt and Road Initiative route passes through the Turkish mainland. The second equally important route coming via Pakistan and Iraq also passes through Turkey.
Russia is yet another major power with an interest in what Turkey does. It exports all of its natural gas and oil to Europe via Turkish mainland. Considering Russia is already working with New Turkey in Libya, Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh, it can never be kept out of the equation when New Turkey is in the mix.
China and Russia are also the two countries that provide New Turkey all the military transfer of technology that it needs. While the West imposes an open or hidden embargo against its long-time ally Turkey, they smartly take up the slack.
Israel, S. Arabia, UAE and Iran are no longer
Meanwhile, the US is left alone in Yemen against Iran in the company of “three stooges.” S. Arabia and UAE are sure to be blamed for the atrocities when humanitarian tragedy explodes in Yemen. Irrespective, Yemenis will not forgive either one of them. Time to reckon will surely come.
Historically, there is a reason why Yemen was never ruled by a foreign power. The Ottomans that reigned in the entire Middle East and North Africa never touched Yemen. To be fair, they rather learned how fierce Yemenis are. Another historical footnote, experts in the US most likely missed. If only they paid attention to the rich Turkish culture and music!
Trump’s Parting-Gift to Biden:
Lot More Than A Big Iranian Mess
Trump, with “blacklisting,” effectively terminates the role of the US in the Middle East. First, he pulled the US out of Syria. Then, he made sure that the incoming Biden Administration faces tough choices in Yemen. On one hand, the US may not be able to end the conflict there. On the other hand, the US may be out of the country even faster, before it gets messier. Ironically, as soon as the US will get out of there, there is a good likely hood that the conflict will end there.
In the GameChanger, I had long argued that unless the US works with New Turkey or Russia, Iran will become a nuclear power. I also argued that unless the US works with New Turkey, it will not remain as the sole superpower of the world. I finally concluded that losing Turkey was no option for the West: God-forbid New Turkey joins forces with the likes of China and Russia. Whether there is Trump’s Parting-Gift to Biden or not, it looks like all three of my predictions are on a path to come true, soon.
Here is the tally, as of January 2021:
- The US does not work with New Turkey or Russia.
- The predictions are that Iran is now in a position to declare that it is a nuclear power sooner than later with a change of guard in the US.
- The fact that there is a good chance that China and New Turkey are soon to cooperate in Yemen, the US is already on the verge of losing a lot more ground on multiple fronts.
As if that is not enough, now the US has more things to figure out: What to do with S. Arabia, the UAE and Israel in the Middle East!
