The beginning of the end of the US hegemony in the Middle East will take place this summer in Iraq. Gradual transformation will not be noticed except on the northern third of the country. This ending was long coming. Inept presidents caused the retreat of the US: Turkish moves in Iraq filled the vacuum in northern Iraq, as a result.
US HEGEMONY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
US hegemony took hold in the Middle East during the Cold War. Interestingly, it also started to dissipate with the disintegration of the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics.
Since the 1990s, the loss of hegemony can also be interpreted as the changing of guards. Ever since, the rising powers of the East have been increasing their presence in the region.
US: Turkish Moves in Iraq
Up To Now
The current helpless state of the US explains the end-of-Journey in Iraq. Türkiye had no choice but to fill the vacuum, starting in the northern third of the country.
Yet, the emergence of Türkiye as the role player in Iraq did not come haphazardly. The ill-advised US foreign policy objectives in fact forced the hand of Türkiye.
First Move
Türkiye did not have any plans to move beyond its borders until the 1980s. Unfortunately, the neocons in the US made the fatal mistake. On 12 September 1980, a coup d’etat, instigated by the US agents, took place in Türkiye.
Their goal was to dismember Türkiye into pieces. The creation of a Kurdish state formed the basis for their plans. Forty years later, Türkiye put an end to this pipedream with decisive politico-diplomatic and econo-military moves.
In other words, about a decade after the 1980 coup d’etat, Türkiye made its move. It first began fighting “terrorists” inside the country. Knowing full well the international conspiracy, eradication of terrorist was the sole goal, and it was achieved by the 2020s.
Second Move
By 2010, Türkiye had long begun to confront Western allies. President Erdogan’s “One Minute” theatric in Davos was a symbolic move. Yet, walking out of the panel, leaving President Shimon Peres stunned, was also significant international development.
Türkiye began to demonstrate its will and capacity with military excursions into northern Iraq and Syria. Within a decade, Turkish military established permanent bases in both neighboring countries in pursuit of terrorists.
These bases consolidated their power over time with the rapid growth of the Turkish defense industry. The radical economic and military transformations edged the Turkish reality to minds. The Western powers were now helpless.
Third Move
By 2020, Türkiye had no longer had steady terrorist activity inside the country. West sponsored terrorists under the pretext of the “freedom fighters” were now on the run. In northern Iraq and Syria, they were in refuge in the caves of the mountainous region.
Yet, by now, the Turkish military industry was also overpowering. Indigenous drones, helicopters, aircrafts aside, advances in radars and electronic warfare were too much. The foreign powers now had no means to counter Turkish technology.
As a result, Türkiye was now 20 km deep into northern Iraq. The number of Turkish military bases were widespread. The next dreaded Turkish move was going to seal the entire mountainous region and free from any “teroririst” activity for good.
US: Turkish Moves in Iraq
Beyond 2024
Turkish moves in Iraq over the past forty years already gave the upper hand to the regime in Ankara. At this time, to complete the Turkish foreign policy objectives in the region is inevitable.
In northern Iraq, Turkish military bases, including in Gara, allows Turkish military power projection for another 20 km deep into northern Iraq. Mosul, Kerkuk, and Erbil will feel the brunt of the Turkish power.
Talabani and Barzani Kurds are now aware of this Turkish reality. So are the Arab and Turkmen groups that make up the rest of the demography of the region. Coupled with the regime in Baghdad, Turkish forces will now establish a new regime in the area.
As a result, it will be no longer business as usual for the Western powers and their local allies. The eradication of Western support for terrorists/freedom fighters will have no choice but to move their bases to Sulaymaniyah.
Sulaymaniyah
The Last Bastion
Since 2020, retreating terrorists/freedom fighters are reportedly relocating in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq. It is the southernmost city in northern Iraq short of the region under the control of the regime in Baghdad.
Turkish intelligence, knowing full well of their move, is in hot, and naturally in discreet pursuit. That is why it is no surprise why the visit of President Erdogan took place now. It came after 13 years and with two stops: Baghdad and Erbil.
Türkiye and Iraq signed 22 agreements during this visit. One of them called for all terrorists to be classified as terrorists. Another one is the cooperation of four militia with the regime forces in Baghdad to bring order.
They are to operate under the watchful eyes of the Turkish forces. Coupled with the Basra to Türkiye Road and Rail project, the economic prosperity will reinforce this Turkish initiative.
As a result, terrorists/freedom fighters in Sulaymaniyah will not find a fruitful environment to survive. Their eradication process will be complete, and China will eventually find its grove to settle in Iraq.
US: Turkish Moves in Iraq
Consequences
Consequences of the Turkish moves in Iraq will be a significant blow to the power projection of the US. Not controlling Baghdad will simply mean the end of the US hegemony in the entire Middle East.
Prosperous Iraq on the other hand will have a positive ripple effect. No one knows if peace and prosperity will ensue, however, the Middle East will no longer be the same. In other words, the difference between the 20th and the 21st centuries will be stark.
If only the Basra to Türkiye Road and Rail project were to be implemented as envisioned, Iraq will be prosperous. Together with its natural resources, Iraq will grow economically and perhaps modernity will also finally arrive there.
In light of how Türkiye prospered within a decade, Turkish moves in Iraq should also give a chance to the much-maligned country. Moreover, since the prosperity of Türkiye requires prosperity in Iraq, the prospects will be promising.
US
I authored “GameChanger Trump Card: Türkiye and Erdogan”, published in 2020. I argued that unless the US collaborates with Türkiye, the US will not remain the sole superpower of the world much longer.
Turkish moves in Iraq in 2024 and beyond explains my projection well. Turkish military moves, bolstered with economic moves, namely the Basra to Türkiye Road and Rail project, will deliver.
At this stage, China will be the biggest beneficiary of this transformation in northern Iraq. As I have been predicting since 2020, China will fill the vacuum if the US will be no show next to Türkiye.
Hopefully, the dumb-founded elected officials and their advisers in Wash DC finally get it. If not, God help America. China will establish hegemony in the Middle East and collaboration with Türkiye will ensure longevity of power projection at the expense of the US and the Western allies.
