Energy Explorations in the Eastern Mediterranean

Turkish Brinkmanship: Electronic Warfare

The Republic of  Turkey is becoming more and more independent from the Western yoke. Current regime set the course in 2002. Yet, not until a decade ago, the intent to distance from America led Western orbit was not standing out. Past few years, on the other hand, Turkish brinkmanship: electronic warfare, left no doubt.

Turkey embarked on this, in your face, path in 2009. In January 2022, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that a new chapter has just begun. Now, the country will focus on domestic energy explorations. That means, Turkish brinkmanship will now, primarily, take place in the “Mavi Vatan.” Electronic warfare will be everywhere in the surrounding seas, defending the perimeter of the peninsula republic.

Turks missed the first two industrial revolutions in 1765 and 1870. The Ottoman Empire was the “sick man of Europe” and decaying. Fledgling Republic of Turkey replaced the empire in 1923. The domineering West, in the 20th century immediately put its claws on this “unwanted” republic. As a result, Turkey also missed the third industrial revolution that began in 1969.

In 1980, the leadership in America made the third, detrimental blunder. It interfered into the domestic affairs of Turkey with a coup d’etat and brought Islamists to power for good. What began with Turgut Ozal, continued with Necmettin Erbakan and Abdullah Gul. Erdogan is now taking the country to the finish line, with electronic warfare that is considered to be industrial revolution 5.0.

In short, Turkey that missed four industrial revolutions, jumped ahead with the fifth one. No sooner, it employed brinkmanship to size up the competition and electronic warfare to make the point. Now Erdogan displays how a benevolent, self-confident, and righteous country seeks its rightful place in the new world order.

Turkish Brinkmanship: Electronic Warfare 

Necmettin Erbakan was prime minister of Turkey for less than a year. Yet, he found an eager audience. He loudly talked about industrial revolution 5.0. Thirty years later, no one was laughing at him anymore after Turkey pulverized antagonists in northern Iraq and Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, lately in Ukraine and Ethiopia.

Turkish brinkmanship: electronic warfare now is everywhere with nano and future technologies. Advances in electromagnetic rail guns, miniaturized laser guns, sonars, radars, and smart bombs are phenomenal. Coupled with indigenously developed and mass produced engines for all platforms, defense industry is now in a league of its own in the world.

Turkey first made this phenomena public in 2009. No one paid much attention when Turkey raised sixteen highly tall flags in Istanbul. Ten years after that, it declared Mavi Vatan what seemed like an aberration to the major powers of the world. It was a big mistake!

Sixteen Flags in Istanbul

It is clear by now, intelligence services of the Western powers were asleep. Turkey raised the sixteen flags for the sake of symbolism.

The Republic of Turkey is the seventeenth Turkish state in history. Currently, there are six other independent Turkic states, five of them, registered at the United Nations. The sixteen flags represent the previous Turkic states in history. Raising them was a message to friends and foe.

Venezuela in South America and Mali in Africa received the message well and ahead of others. Yet, they were not the only ones. In 2009, there was only twelve Turkish embassies in Africa. A decade later, there are forty four of them.

Mavi Vatan: An Aberration

In 2019, a phenomenal maritime exercise took place with over one hundred Turkish warships in the surrounding seas around Turkey. Couple months later, the exercise was repeated with more than one hundred fifty warships. Mavi Vatan was not an aberration. It was the real deal.

I authored “GameChanger.” I stated that Turkey will play Zero Sum Game in the Mavi Vatan, northern Iraq and Syria. Published in 2020, the book warned that unless America worked with Turkey, the sole superpower status will be in danger in a decade.

So in 2022, Erdogan’s declaration can be promptly implemented now that Mavi Vatan is hands in hand with electronic warfare. As a result, Turkish brinkmanship will be ready to go a long way and ensure powerful economic growth for decades to come.

Turkish Leverage 

Turkey also made great strides in building a domineering naval force in the region. Indigenous corvettes, frigates, submarines, fast attack boats, massive coast guard, and a flat top are some of them. Warships are soon to replace American made Harpoons with indigenously built Atmacas. Turkish Akyas also will stop dependencies to German torpedoes. Finally, Italy is at a loss too. Turkey already developed a naval gun to replace the Italian standard on all Western battleships. Turkish versions will be available competitively where America, Germany, and Italy used to sell them exclusively at a set price.

In drones, Turkey is now considered number two power in the world. Yet in 2021, Turkey further positioned itself to come up with sixth generation unmanned aircrafts that may soon leave America behind. They will be taken off from the TCG Anadolu flap top no less. Meanwhile, Turkey already did the damage to the fifth generation wonder aircraft, the F-35s. With the passage of CAATSA 231, the US Senate decided not to sell F-35s to Turkey. Only two years later, the Turkish version (TFX) is sure to come out of the hangar with a roaring engine, strategic partners, and client states.

TFX is expected to have similar technologies like F-35s but also one of a kind Turkish je ne sais quoi. Like the Turkish built Atak and Gokbey, and soon to fly Atak 2 helicopters, TFX will also have an edge in price, technology, and armament. They will sell better like drones are already doing. Turkey currently exports indigenously developed and mass produced defense industry platforms and products to one hundred seventy countries. It is a top ten supplier in the world, It is expected to become one of the top five within a decade.

The dilemma for the leading military suppliers in the world is twofold. One, they have to partner with Turkey in order not to lose market share with third countries. Two, when it comes to nano and future technologies, they have something to learn from Turkey. Electromagnetic rail guns or miniaturized guns and ordinances are in particular.

Spain, Italy, Germany, England, Russia, and France

Major Partners of Turkey

In that regard, it is time to collaborate. For example, Italy can continue building and selling helicopters with Turkey to third countries. Turkish Atak is a prime example. Germany soon will not be able to sell enough submarines unless it cooperates with Turkish input. Indonesia is an example.

Spain and Russia are the smartest of them all. Spain continues to build TCG Anadolu type, flat top landing crafts with Turkey. Russia, on the other hand, provides Turkey with S-400 defensive batteries and the first nuclear power reactor in Akkuyu. Reportedly, co-production of newly developed S-500s and SU-57 type aircrafts are also possibilities.

England, ever since Brexit found that it is vitally important to join forces with Turkey. France, on the other hand, is the odd man out but, reportedly, it came to realize that it must cooperate with Turkey, for example in Africa against China.

Electromagnetic Rail and Laser Guns

Turkish Brinkmanship: Electronic Warfare

Turkish superiority in electromagnetic rail and laser gun technologies are already evident in 2022. For example, reportedly, America invested half a billion dollars on electromagnetic rail guns. Then, it canceled the project. Turkey, on the other hand, has one with 5 km range and another soon to be revealed with 50 km range. In laser gun technology, the news is not much different. Turkey, three years ago, revealed it in Libya. A Chinese drone was downed with a miniaturized truck mounted laser gun.

Nevertheless, electromagnetic rail and laser guns are still in development stages. To put it another way, there is yet to be a Turkish announcement that either one of these superior guns are in mass production. Meanwhile, Turkey already announced half a dozen other major military platforms that make up its electronic warfare strategy. Worse news, reportedly, Turkey will soon announce that the miniaturized versions of these platforms are in mass production. They will be available for drones, helicopters, and aircrafts.

Hence it is easy to conclude. Turkish brinkmanship: electronic warfare is here to stay. Erdogan, in turn, is also free to focus on energy explorations and economy, now that military leverage and deterrence are in place.