In Africa, Asia, or Europe?

Erbil Writes Turkey: Next Conflict, Anyone!

In the aftermath of the Nagorno-Karabakh debacle, here comes Turkey: Next Conflict, Anyone! Will Turkey flex its military muscle now in Africa or Asia or Europe, no one knows. Time will show soon in the evolving new world order.

The modern Republic of Turkey, nowadays commonly referred to as “New Turkey,” is everywhere with a military force. It is in Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan and Eastern Mediterranean. They are the conflict zones of late like Iraq has been for a long time. New Turkey is well entrenched there for a long time as well. Qatar, Albania, Somalia and the northern third of Cyprus, on the other hand, are other fronts where New Turkey continues its military build-up as necessary, by the book, and without much fuss.

Bully or Savior

Some would argue that New Turkey is an aggressive power and a trouble-maker. Some others view New Turkey as a savior. The difference of opinion is nothing new in this divisive world when America itself forgot how to become “One America” again. New Turkey, in the meantime, focuses on the next conflict. Not that it is looking for it, but it is because New Turkey operates in a tough neighborhood. It is where Asia, Africa and Europe meet and where Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East have always been.

New Turkey knows full well two roles that it must play, and then some. Plus, there are humanitarian responsibilities that it fulfills better than better-able Western powers.

The international structure requires New Turkey to be part of the balance of power both in the Middle East and in Europe. New Turkey has to counterbalance Iran and the Arab world so that neither resorts to aggression. In Europe, New Turkey does the balancing act between the European Union and the Russian Federation. There, economic interests take prominence, unlike the Middle East, where the military might makes the difference.

Trouble Finds New Turkey: Next Conflict, Anyone!

New Turkey does not look for trouble in the hood, but trouble finds it from all angles. On one hand, victims seek security and justice when they are bullied by their neighbors and their cohorts. On the other hand, there are major powers with interest in the region. They make demands from weaker players, a habit from the 20th century when might made it right for them.

Helping Victims

Qatar, Libya, and Azerbaijan fell victims to aggressions, emanating from major power conflicts and their proxies. These conflicts came to peaceful ends only when New Turkey flexed its military muscle.

In Iraq and Syria conflicts continue and New Turkey is deeply entrenched in both countries. The roots of the problems there involve injustices dating back to World War I. They are sure to last a lot longer before resolved since all major powers have existential stakes in the games they play.

Dealing with Major Powers

Eastern Mediterranean is now the center for the mother of all conflicts. Soon, it will also require a balance of power on a global scale to resolve the problems there. So far, New Turkey put its cards on the table with Blue Homeland Doctrine and Libya-Turkey Maritime Deal.

France tried to counter the Turkish challenge as it used to in the 20th century. But no sooner, it understood that militarily superior New Turkey cannot be manhandled anymore.

Russia too had tested New Turkey in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan. It came to a conclusion that working and cooperating with New Turkey is a better alternative.

Next in line is Germany. Soon, New Turkey is sure to show who is the boss in its “neck of woods.” Not until then, major powers, like Germany, cannot be expected to invite New Turkey to join their club.

Picking Your Fight With New Turkey

There are lessons to learn from the Globalist years that lasted from 1992 to 2016 in America. New Turkey involved many fracases against Globalists for 24 years and came out victorious. Major powers must have already learned if and when to confront New Turkey and to what end. Unfortunately, it does not work like that in the international arena.

Warning to Major Powers!

  • Only America has the economic and military superiority to enter into a Zero Sum game against New Turkey nowadays. Even then, neither side will win. China will benefit from such a clash which will be the worst choice for America.
  • No Western European power must try the “Chicken” game against New Turkey. The dynamics have long changed between the two since the early 2010s. Do not even mention the Zero Sum game! 1 million Syrian refugees flooding Europe and a France frigate left dead in water on 18 June 2020 are plenty to heed the message.
  • Russia must not, but also will not go for the bait. It will not fall apart with New Turkey because it needs another decade of economic and military growth. Plus, it is more beneficial to cooperate with New Turkey than confront it.

Advice to the Rest?

  • For smaller countries in the hood, it is better to stay away from debacles when New Turkey is involved with major powers.
  • Nagorno-Karabakh is a good case in point. While America, France, Russia and New Turkey settled an old account, Armenia came out looser.
  • Israel and Greece have nothing to gain from aggravating New Turkey which will remain benevolent so long as it is not poked.
  • The rest of the Arabs have to pick their side, and they must make that decision very carefully. 2023, 2024, 2032, and 2037 are the dates they must keep in mind.
  • By the way, Egypt and S. Arabia are endangered species. Their current regimes have no chance to withstand historical forces.

It is not the 20th century anymore

No one should bet on America to come to anyone’s help in the foreseeable future. Especially, when Globalists knock on the door, no one must be at home either. Otherwise one of the consequences would be to fall into a Bermuda Triangle conundrum.

Meanwhile, it is only fair to remind that New Turkey has already set up two of those “Triangles” in the region. One is in the Arabian Peninsula. The other is in the Eastern Mediterranean. Unfortunately, some countries will not be able to avoid them for geostrategic reasons. Others will simply be dragged into.