Rising Azerbaijan: Nothing to Cheer

Erbil Writes Rising Azerbaijan: Nothing to Cheer

Rising Azerbaijan is nothing to cheer for long-time adversaries yet it is part of the new world order in the making. It is one of the seven independent Turkic Republics. It gained independence from the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics when it disintegrated in 1991.

Azerbaijan could have stayed as a fledgling republic with limited growth, presence and projections. Instead, it became a “GameChanger” within three decades. The West is responsible for Rising Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan, unlike the other four – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, faced aggression as soon as it gained  independence. Next door Armenia took twenty percent of its territory by force.

Armenia did not embark on this aggressive path alone. It was encouraged by its cohorts, sovereign powers of the West because it was just another one of the fledgling and newly independent Soviet Republics,

By October 2020, with the help of “New Turkey,” Azerbaijan liberated the occupied region Nagorno-Karabakh. During the process, it also gained leverage to connect directly with Nakhchivan province which was in isolation between Armenia, Turkey and Iran.

More importantly, Azerbaijan unveiled its economic and military superiority in the region over Armenia and made a statement. It became a player in the region but also in Europe and Central Asia.

Rising Azerbaijan: Nothing to Cheer

Incorporating Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhchivan and then reconnecting firmly with the rest of the Turkic world is an important sign. For a relatively small country to raise its voice among major powers of the region can only be possible in the New World Order.

In other words, a full-fledged war took place when no other major power in the world was able to prevent or intervene until it was over. The war to liberate Nagorno-Karabakh began on 7 October and ended with an agreement on 9 November. It simply  put Azerbaijan on the map.

Azerbaijan armed forces, in a month-long operation, liberated four of the seven provinces from the occupying Armenians. The ensuing agreement included a peace force from Russia and Turkey.

They will be there until the remaining three provinces are reincorporated back to Azerbaijan. They will also oversee the establishment of two corridors between Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan via Armenia.

Russia is to stay in Azerbaijan for five years as a peacekeeper but it is all up to Azerbaijan. It can demand early withdrawal anytime. Armed forces from Turkey will be there to enforce it.

Together with “New Turkey,” rising Azerbaijan surely will do even more. Soon after it finds its groove in the region, it would want to become part of a regional economic union. That will also invite Armenia to join on equal grounds.

1991 Independence Revisited

30 years later, Azerbaijan is the independent second time. Three decades makes all the difference. Post Cold War era was bewildering. Now it is the threshold of the new world order.

Russia nowadays is under the leverage of other powers and cooperates with “New” Turkey.  Short of better options, it is a good alternative for Russia. America, on the other hand, is a domestically divided superpower.

America is in disarray and cannot focus completely on international disorder. As for the rest of the West, the UK, Germany, France and Italy have long become decaying economic powers. They have no military muscle to talk about without Pentagon at the helm.

Meanwhile, there is the rising East, filling the vacuum that the West is leaving behind. China and India are on their way to become the number one and two economic powers in the world.

Azerbaijan will be there to cooperate with them alongside Turkic union that is now acting as a cohesive unit.

Rising Azerbaijan: Hope or Threat

Azerbaijan is now poised to make bold strides. New Turkey in the company ensures it. It is there to exert presence not only against impudent Armenia but also on bordering Russia and Iran.

Short of prodding its neighbors, Azerbaijan will be a force to be reckoned with. The future of Europe is sure to see the ripple effect of this development.

Anxiety for Russia 

Russia would love to extend its influence over independent Azerbaijan but it is not possible. Azerbaijan is not Armenia and a member of the Turkic Council.

It is no longer a pray, rather, more so, a threat. It is better for Russia to accept Azerbaijan as a viable and friendly partner in the region than as an adversary.

A blessing and a curse for the West

Azerbaijan, 30 years ago, was a fledgling republic. Now, it is richer. It developed its energy exploration infrastructure. TANAP pipeline is completed. It transports natural resources from Baku to Europe via Turkey. It brings Azerbaijan great economic leverage across the board.

This leverage is both a blessing and a curse for the West. On one hand, economically and militarily rising Azerbaijan presents a great balancing act. Together with New Turkey, Azerbaijan is stronger.

Their stand together will primarily look like a bulwark against Russia and Iran. On the other hand, rising Azerbaijan also bolsters the bravado of the Turkic Council. Not many in the West or the East would like it, especially if it reflects in its self-confidence.

The Turkic Council for everyone to take into account

The Turkic Council is an international organization comprising some of the Turkic countries. They include Turkey and four former Soviet republics. Officially, it is the Cooperation Council of Turkic-Speaking States.

Since late 2018, Hungary has been an observer and may request full membership. In 2020, Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Emine Ceppar stated Ukraine wanted to be an observer. In 2012, the flag of the Turkic Council was adopted.

Rising Azerbaijan: Nothing to Cheer because it is part of Turkic Council

The Turkic Council will become a domineering economic and military power in the long run. It is up to America to join this quasi-union before it becomes a more formidable entity.

The Japanese edition of the “GameChanger Trump Card: Turkey & Erdogan” will reveal more. It will be published soon and have an additional chapter devoted to the issue. It will put into perspective how other countries may join the fray and keep it benevolent.

A threat for Iran

Against Iran, the newly embolden Azerbaijan is even a bigger threat. Half of the Iranian population is Azeri. Powerful northern brethren will always be a source of worry for Tehran. It can, from now on, only be tamed with prudence. Time only will tell how it will all play out for the region and the West.

A Hint for America 

As for America, the prospect is little complicated. Globalist regimes of Clinton-Bush 43-Obama were behind the Nagorno-Karabakh mess. Ironically, domestic disarray in Wash DC. also gave an opportunity for Azerbaijan to turn history back.

From now on, America must have realistic foreign policy objectives, otherwise, it is sure to lose a lot more sway in the region and beyond. Worse, the rising East will not let another Globalist mistake go unpunished.

More on that at GAMECHANGER Trump Card: Turkey & Erdogan. Chapter Six: “THE WEST” and Chapter Eight: “EAST vs WEST” explain the dynamics.

The book in its entirety points where America must invest in the international system. It also discerns how America must ally with the Muslims of the world. It puts everything into perspective with Donald Trump of America and Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey.