Yet, Armenia Should Have Known Better
Is it fair to say the Minsk Group: Betrayed Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh war of 2020?
Yes and No!
Yes, for giving false hope to Armenians and letting them stranded.
No. Armenia should have known better.
Minsk Group Betrayed Armenia: Facts
Betraying Armenia is not intentional. Neither one of these three world powers would have any reason to betray, relatively small and impoverished country in the middle of nowhere. Yet, since they all did, someone must explain this dilemma.
Short answer: It is no longer the 20th century. Countries must realign themselves better according to new realities.
Long answer: It is the 21st century, major powers of the last century missed the train already. They are short on resources and power projection capabilities. Plus, there are rapidly rising regional powers with abundant resources.
In short, New World Order dictates new rules and dynamics that are already in place. The West no longer has hegemony. Consequently, there is no will power or capacity to make things right to the liking of the West anymore.
Armenia should have known better
The Minsk Group, led by the US, France and the RF behaved almost the same in 2020 in Azerbaijan, as they did in 1915 in Anatolia. They were never powerful enough against Turks, then and now. Yet, they still encouraged Armenians to become belligerent again and again. Surely, when the tied turned against them, they left Armenia and Armenians to their own peril.
Armenia and Armenians that faced tragedy once in 1915, should have known better. They should have never relied on the same forces again a century and five years later in Azerbaijan. Armenia did not do that and now it is facing the music.
Russia Then and Now: Betrayed Armenia?
In 1915, Russia was the aggressor against the dismembering Ottoman Empire. Armenians tried to take advantage of the misfortune of the Turks but faith was not with them. The tied turned against them and the young Turks came back roaring to build a republic in place of their empire.
A century later, in 2020, Armenia was now belligerent against Azerbaijan. Russia was backing Armenians, with a false pretext, because as a major sovereign power it had its own priorities.
As a result, as if what transpired a century ago was a phantom, Armenia relied on Russia when Russia was busy playing a balancing act between America and Turkey.
No Longer Under Western Yoke
First of all, the US and Turkey had long been in an alliance against the Soviet Union throughout the Cold War. Since the disintegration in 1991, they had to establish a new modus operandi. Unfortunately, in the US Globalists came to power and stayed for the next 24 years. As a result, New Turkey smartly took advantage of these novice presidents.
All the while, rapidly rising China was also making “great leap forwards” against the US. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was coming into play. China needed to pull New Turkey to its side. It was no problem. Last Globalist President Obama at the helm delivered what China wanted.
15 July 2016 failed coup d’etat took place against the Erdogan regime in Turkey. Joe Biden was vice-president. He visited Erdogan in Turkey 45 days after this coup d’etat. By then, many other countries had visited Erdogan to relay their support.
Obama Messed It Up
Left No Political Capital to Trump
President Donald Trump could have never come to the help of Armenia in 2020 and he did not. He was in the process of winning New Turkey and Erdogan back, after all the previous US Globalist administrations effectively and practically lost it.
In other words, the US was not in a position to exert any pressure on New Turkey. The US had China to worry about and nothing that would further push New Turkey towards China was acceptable.
Finally, President Trump was for “America First.” He was for “free and fair trade” like his counterpart Erdogan was. They were on the same page on many issues. Lastly, considering Minsk Group’s mockery was a Globalist mess, there could be no justification for a nationalist president like Trump to confront another nationalist president Erdogan.
Was Never A Factor
As for Armenia also relying on France, as perhaps Plan B or C, was an even worse choice. First of all, why French troops in Anatolia in 1915 never helped dispersed Armenians after Ottoman Turks confronted the invading Russian forces? They were in close proximity but nowhere to be found to help Armenians.
Two, who in the right mind today can expect any help to come from the decaying Western economic powers of the 20th century. France militarily is not even worth mentioning as a power. Never mind sending a warship or two to the Black Sea, it cannot even send an evacuation ship.
No Match To Turks
France was never a power that could have dealt with the Turks anyway. It is not for nothing, Napoleon famously said: “Give me a Turkish army. I will conquer the world.”
Did not war-weary armed forces of the Ottoman Empire gallantly turned back the most formidable French and British navies in the Dardanelles in 1915?
Did not the young Turks force French forces to withdraw from the southeastern Turkish towns during the Liberation War in 1922?
Ottoman Turks then were nothing like the Turks in Anatolia are today but they still manhandled French forces alongside six others like the Russians, Brits, Greeks, etc.
No Match for New Turkey
Today, New Turkey is the domineering economic and military power of the region. Someone should long have advised President Emmanuel Macron properly not to make himself a laughing stock of Europe before Turks. But at this stage, it is already too late. France already tested the will and capacity of the Turkish armed forces on 18 June 2020.
French frigate simply had to return back to its homeport helpless. There was a superior Turkish naval strategy in play that is still classified. But what transpired in the Eastern Mediterranean is what is to come more if France were to push further. Most everybody in the Western Alliance had long understood the power projections of New Turkey. The Russians and the Chinese are included. Unfortunately, many still are not sure if the French got it.
Truth Be Told
I grew up with Armenian, Jewish and Greek kids, when I attended Catholic Boarding School, in Istanbul. It is called: Saint Benoit Lycée Francaise. We lived in the prison-like formidable building for many years under “terrorizing” peers but we survived and we are better off today.
Why did we put up with that?
First, we had no choice. That was the best education we could get even if we did not like the company of the pious grown-ups that were reigning on us. Two, other choices in other countries were too expensive and far-fetched for our families. Sending ten-year-old kids away for education could have been great but would have been too much for everyone. In the long run, staying in the neighborhood, (the country) turned out to become the best choice for most of us.
No Better Options
Armenia faces the same predicaments we faced like children then. It is stuck in an unforgiven region with an unwanted company which is better than any other alternatives.
The Transcaucasian Trail in the Caucasus is a region that includes parts of six countries – Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey and Iran. It is a mountainous isthmus of land sandwiched between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea.
First, the region is isolated in the middle of nowhere and with neighbors coming from all varieties of cultures and religions. Second, three smaller countries are landlocked by three larger countries. They are simply dependent on them.
The question is why limit options for Armenia when all three larger countries can be exploited for maximum gain and benefits. Especially when it is obvious that neither one of these big three countries will let outside powers into the region. Ironically, everyone locally will be interdependent in turn.
Holds Most Cards
Conscious of this eventuality, that is exactly what New Turkey and Azerbaijan offered to Armenia on 10 November 2020. The same offer was on the table in 1991 too, when Armenia and Azerbaijan first tasted the liberty from the Soviet yoke. But then, Armenia elected to join forces with the US, France and the Russian Federation and invaded Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan.
No one took into consideration how Turkey had overwhelming geostrategic advantages in this region. The US or France never had a clear path to venture anywhere near the Caucasus. For example, even if the US or France wanted to help Armenia during its clash with Azerbaijan, the alternatives were over Russia or Iran. All other most convenient paths were through the Turkish domain.
Paper Tiger Globalists
What did the Obama Administration do when Russia wrangled Crimea by force from Ukraine? What did the Western powers do during the Globalist reign in the West, when Russia entered N. Ossetia in Georgia?
Big nothing. Twice. Why? The US, under Globalist Obama, did not have much weight overseas. It had no leverage or many relationships with New Turkey. Instead, yet another Globalist, though Republican, the US Senator John McCain visited Georgia. In the minds of some in America, it may have seemed a show of force.
In the Black Sea basin, everyone knew there were two powers to reckon with. One was Russia. The other was New Turkey. The US not having the blessing of New Turkey was nothing but a paper tiger in that region.
Unfortunately, today numerous US senators give speeches as if they have any weight like McCain tried to show it with a visit to the country. French president Nicholas Sarkozy did the same at the same time. Everyone knew all too well they were hallowed visits, playing to the voters at home.
Never Had a Role to Play
When the sole superpower of the world does not have the leverage, what is it to France to promise anything to Armenia? Leave the Black Sea aside, France has never become a dominant Mediterranean Seapower in its entire history. What transpired during the Algerian Revolution and currently in Libya or Lebanon reflects the non-existent military power projection of France.
Minsk Group: Betrayed Armenia
Minsk Group was formed by the US, France and the Russian Federation in 1992. They came together to deliver to ethnic Armenia’s the Republic of Artsakh. Then, there was no New Turkey to worry about but despite that in the past 28 years they could not deliver.
It is about time for Armenia and Armenians to wake up. The future is not with the likes of unrealistic and major power serving Minsk type groups. The future is working and living in harmony with the other five countries in the region. After all, Armenian lives matter, not the pocketbook of the diaspora that is no different than other diasporas, including the Jewish that is supposedly be serving the best interest of Israel.