Losing Turkey: Not an Option

Erbil Writes Losing Turkey Not an Option

Losing Turkey: Not an option for the US. Without a close alliance with the modern Republic of Turkey, the US cannot remain as the only superpower in the world.

Unfortunately, since 1992, the US lived under the impression that the 21st century will be no different than the 20th. By 2016, it was all too clear for everyone except for the Globalists in the West that New Turkey was negotiating from the point of strength.

In the aftermath of the November 3rd, 2020 elections in the USA, it is up to the US Congress not to mess it up anymore. The Globalist Clinton, Bush-43 and Obama administrations made grave miscalculations. They left no room for additional mistakes in the relationship with New Turkey.

President Trump understood it well and was on the right path to how not to further distance New Turkey from the West. No US president could have switched New Turkey back 180 degrees again since the 15 July 2016 failed coup d’état attempt.

Unfortunately, the “chickens came home to roost” with the 2016 presidential elections, to do the same back home instead. But that is another story. Since then, New Turkey is no longer altogether with the West. What country would be?

Losing Turkey: Not an option in the Eastern Mediterranean

Alliance with the Republic of Turkey allows America to have freedom of navigation in the Eastern Mediterranean. The geo-strategic location of the republic and the vast amounts of land, sea and airspace it controls make it a vitally important ally to have it on board. Anything short of that is not an option for the US to remain the sole superpower in the world.

No Access to Eastern Mediterranean

Practically, half of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea belongs to the Republic of Turkey. The established norms of the international law of the seas support its claim firmly.

The US 6th Fleet patrolling these waters requires friendly navies. Aggravating New Turkey is not an option. On top of that, there is rising China that is itching to make friendly port calls in the same waters. Every misstep by the US Congress is making that possibility a probability.

The Eastern Mediterranean has vast hydrocarbon reserves. They will determine the dominant economies of the 21st century. The Republic of Turkey will, by far, be the biggest because it has the biggest continental shelf. Wide-ranging projections elevate New Turkey within a decade to the fifth largest economy in the world. The US has all the more reasons to work with New Turkey in this closed sea.

Losing access to this sea also closes doors to the Black Sea, Caucasus, and beyond. As a result, Russia lives free of Western pressure. Plus, it is also the only way to reach the Middle East from the West. That also means that the US 6th Fleet will roam mostly in the West of Crete which is not what it is mainly built for.

Basically, the territorial waters of New Turkey are so waste, there is no alternative. Today, war is not an option to take away what is in the Turkish sovereignty either. Short of war other forms of pressures are not effective either. Turkey is a domineering economic and military power of the region.

No Air Space

Air space over the northern half of Africa goes next if the relationship with New Turkey is not fixed or managed well. New Turkey currently has extensive relationships deep inside Africa. It is second only to China in terms of influence there.

Arial navigation requires friendly land and sea-based stations and systems. New Turkey has already developed and assembled a vast network in the region.

Powers from the West and East already tested the resolve of New Turkey in the region. In Libya, the battles on the ground depended on the control of air space in 2020. France tested it further in the Eastern Mediterranean, near Libya and failed conclusively.

The latest debacle in Nagorno-Karabakh proved one more time air superiority mattered. The US, France and Russia together could not confront New Turkey and Azerbaijani was able to liberate its territory from Armenians only in 44 days.

But that is not all. Reportedly, New Turkey has developed half a dozen offensive and defensive systems that work in cohesion. Each with radars, missiles, trajectories, operating systems and platforms that are still a mystery to the potential adversaries.

Fatal Mistakes of the Globalists

The US Administrations made disastrous decisions all throughout since 1992. The rest of the world took advantage of them. Against Turkey, belligerence by the United States started to come back to hunt in the 2010s. Come 2020, the US does not have much leverage against Turkey, if at all.

Not selling Patriots defensive missile systems was a big mistake. It allowed Turkey to buy the S-400s versions from Russia and produced an indigenous version, called “Siper.” The S-400 and Siper, coupled with dozen other new technologies exclusively developed by New Turkey, practically will hurt the US in an increasing fashion over time.

But that is not an isolated mistake. The US, like a domino effect. decided not to deliver to Turkey the F-35 aircraft that it paid for. New Turkey was supposed to be the second-biggest customer of these technological wonders. As a result, the US began losing third-country customers in the market. Very recently, Lockheed Martin stopped the production of F-35.

A decade earlier, the US again prevented the transfer of technology only to realize China provided it Turkey. Since then New Turkey developed additional indigenous technology that is undermining the dominance of the US in missile technology. New Turkey now has very developed, sophisticated, long-range missiles that are also the preferred weapons of choice or ordinances in the US arsenal.

In short, every time the US made a strategic mistake in the transfer of technology, New Turkey capitalized on it effectively.

Losing Turkey: Not an option with China rising 

At this stage, the US Congress has no alternative but to work with Turkey. Unfortunately, the majority of its members think as if it is still the 20th century. The West no longer has the same leverage that it used to have. Now there is China to worry about.

The East has risen fast for a long time, along with that New Turkey. Unless the US senators wake up and smell the roses, the US is sure to lose more ground. New Turkey will surely be the further beneficiary of that alongside China.


China will always be waiting at the gate to get the ripple effects. Going after New Turkey, in short, has a double whammy against the US leadership. One, its long-time ally is becoming more and more estranged when a problem arises. Two, China makes gains against the US.

Mistakes in the Middle East, made New Turkey return to the old Ottoman territories. China immediately joined New Turkey in Iraq for example. Soon they will build the London-Basra Orient Express, an important portion of the Belt & Road Initiative.

In Africa, at this time there is no clear evidence that the two rising Eastern powers are cooperating as closely. Even though both are everywhere in the dark continent, they operate separately. They even compete at times but on winning a variety of contracts, nothing lethal.


Overall, China began cooperating with Turkey on 16 July 2016 simply because of the Globalists in the US. A US-inspired and Western European supported, coup attempt against President Erdogan became the last nail in the coffin.

Erdogan from that point on turned to the East and began a closer relationship with China. Vice President Joe Biden did not visit Erdogan as a show of support for 45 days. Compare to other leaders, that was late more than a month and it did not go unnoticed.

New Turkey: The Road Ahead

Today, New Turkey practically finds itself between the fast-rising China lead east and the US leading equally fast decaying West. Yet, it still continues the balancing act between the two. Nonetheless, there are major grievances between New Turkey and the US.

Unless they are resolved promptly and on equal grounds, the prospect for the US leadership does not look promising. Yet, it is also up to the US Administrations and the Congress to win New Turkey back. They must understand, and fast, that losing Turkey: Not an option. There are two areas that require immediate attention.

  1. 15 July 2016 took place. There is no way to reverse it. The US is paying the price ever since and will continue for a long time but there is a way to prevent it to become an even more divisive moment in history. Delicate and genuine diplomatic overtures are the only ways.
  2. Unfortunately, CAATSA 231 also took place recently. The US Congress elected increased the ante and decided to play a “Chicken” game against New Turkey which is a step short of playing a Zero-Sum Game. What if New Turkey elects to switch the game to the latter now?

I analyzed this prospect in an article titled: “New Turkey: What Gives!” In summary,

  • The US does not have an option to play a Zero-Sum Game against New Turkey
  • New Turkey will not play a Zero-Sum Game against the US, but it has selective areas where it can and will play if pushed
  • All the while, neither side can afford to play this game against one another because China comes out as the only winner